George Square Market Commentary in Conjunction with Albemarle Street Partners 

A strong first half, with room for further gains as inflation falls

The second quarter showed a cooling in US inflation and a moderation in economic growth without significant disruptions. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasised that policymakers require more data before considering rate cuts. 

In the UK, the economy expanded in the first quarter and surpassed forecasts. This growth effectively ended the shallow recession that began in late 2023, signalling a potential turnaround for the British economy. Inflation in the UK reached the Bank of England's 2% target in May, marking a significant milestone in the country's economic recovery. However, the impact of cumulative price increases over the past three years continues to affect living standards and political sentiment. The Bank of England is expected to wait until August before lowering policy rates. 

The European economy is expected to experience a timid and patchy recovery, with annual growth projected at just 0.5% this year. While there are some positive signs, such as increased consumer spending, the overall outlook remains subdued. Despite concerns about inflation stickiness the ECB delivered its first rate cut since 2019, lowering the deposit rate to 3.75%.  

China introduced bold measures to revitalise its struggling property sector, aiming to stabilise a market that is crucial to its economic growth. These initiatives included allowing local governments to purchase apartments and relaxing mortgage rules. 

Global equity markets delivered strong returns in the first half of 2024, with US equity indices reaching record closing highs. The US stock market rally was primarily driven by the technology sector, particularly the surge in AI-related stocks. However, concerns about the concentration of returns in a handful of tech giants have emerged, as the equal-weight US equity index, a proxy for the average stock, only rose 4% year-to-date. 

Earnings performance in the first quarter of 2024 was robust, with US large cap companies reporting their highest earnings growth rate (5.7%) since the second quarter 2022. Analysts project 11% earnings growth for US larger companies in 2024, indicating a favourable backdrop for equities. 

As the second half of 2024 unfolds, market participants will keep a close eye on the US presidential election, as political uncertainty is expected to become a more significant factor influencing asset prices. Closer to home, investors will weigh up policy announcements by the incoming government as they set their stall for a 5-year term. Changes in tax and trade policies will be key to investor sentiment. 

Conclusion: 

The first half of 2024 demonstrated the forward-looking and resilient nature of financial markets.  A complex macroeconomic and political backdrop failed to deter investors as corporate profits, the lifeblood of equity markets, started recovering. The second half holds the potential for economic and political turmoil. Maintaining a diversified portfolio whilst allocating to attractive opportunities will be key to delivering better outcomes for our clients. We remain mindful of incoming market and economic data and will adjust portfolios if warranted.   

The content of this material is a marketing communication, and not independent investment research. As such, the legal and regulatory requirements in relation to independent investment research do not apply to this material and it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of its dissemination. The material is for general information purposes only (whether or not it states any opinions). It does not consider your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) legal, financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by Albemarle Street Partners or George Square Financial Management that any particular investment, security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. Although the information set out in this marketing communication is obtained from sources believed to be reliable neither Albemarle Street Partners or George Square Financial Management make any guarantee as to its accuracy or completeness. Neither Albemarle Street Partners or George Square Financial Management shall be responsible for any loss that you may incur, either directly or indirectly, arising from any investment based on any information contained herein. Albemarle Street Partners is a trading name of Atlantic House Investments Ltd (AHI). Issued by AHI who is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered Office: 135 Bishopsgate, 8th Floor, London, EC2M 3TP. George Square Financial Management is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority

Sam Hits High Note with Appointment as Carpenter Box Partner

Sussex and South East accountancy firm Carpenter Box has signalled continuation of its ambitious growth plans with the appointment of a new Partner.

Sam Fisher has been promoted to Partner from his current position of Client Service Director within the Business Services Group, having joined the firm in May 2022.

Sam started his working life as professional musician, courtesy of a degree in music technology, sailing the world entertaining on board cruise ships. Keen to settle down, Sam put his passion for maths and business to good use by launching a career in accountancy.

He joined a multi-national fund administration group in London, where he built his expertise in management information reporting, real estate business and investment funds.

Says Sam, who is based at the firm’s London and Crawley offices: “I’m delighted to be appointed Partner and feel excited to continue my journey with such a fantastic forward-focused firm.

“Carpenter Box is an innovative organisation, always alive to new ways to enhance the value we create for clients while at the same time providing a really supportive environment for staff. I’m very much looking forward to continuing to develop my team and playing my part in the exciting growth plans of the firm.”

Outside of work, Sam enjoys musical theatre directing, and is currently working on a production of Charlie and the Chocolate Factory at the Epsom Playhouse, which opens to the public in November.

www.carpenterbox.com

Worthing College Rugby Students are looking for Host Families

At the Academy of Sport at Worthing College we have a nationally recognised programme, where students train and play at the top level for College sport in England, whilst at the same time get an excellent education with outstanding results.

With this we attract the best talent, not only locally, but also out of the county of Sussex (particularly in Women’s Rugby, our programme is linked to Harlequins WRFC) We are already excited to welcome our next batch of talented “academic athletes”.  With this in mind there is a requirement for students to stay with host families for 3-4 days a week, whilst they study/perform with us at the College. 

As our numbers of students in this position has grown over the last couple of years we are looking for more host families to join and support our next generation of academic athletes (flyer attached).  This might be of interest to you if; 

• You are local to the Worthing area,
• You may have a spare room available,
• Your son/daughter maybe leaving for University (so a room is available),
• You may want an additional income,
• You want to support the College and giving positive experiences to all students.

So, if this is something that is of interest, please email D.Hall@worthing.ac.uk

We are also on the lookout for kit sponsors for the coming season across ALL sports (Football, Netball, Basketball & Rugby), so if there are any willing businesses, who again want to support the development of young, positive people, please email D.Hall@worthing.ac.uk

University of Chichester announces appointment of Professor Symeon Dagkas as new Vice-Chancellor

The University of Chichester has appointed Professor Symeon Dagkas as Vice-Chancellor; he will take up his post on the 1 November 2024. Professor Dagkas will take over from Professor Jane Longmore, who is retiring later this year, having grown the reputation and profile of the University of Chichester significantly over a very successful seven-year period.

Professor Dagkas currently serves as Provost and Chief Academic Officer at St Mary’s University, where he oversees all academic activities across the university’s three faculties and seven schools as well as recruitment, admissions and international. Over his career, Professor Dagkas has held multiple senior leadership roles at various institutions, including those within the Russell Group and Post-92 universities.

Announcing the appointment, Dr Tim Fooks, Chair of Governors said: “I am delighted that Professor Symeon Dagkas will become the next Vice-Chancellor of the University of Chichester following selection from a strong field of candidates. Symeon has the qualities, skills and experience needed to lead the University on its exciting upwards trajectory. Symeon will build upon the University’s strengths of research-led teaching quality, student experience and student engagement. Drawing upon these strengths and the University’s heritage and values, he will work with our community to promote the University on the national and global stage”.

Professor Symeon Dagkas expressed his gratitude to the Chair and the Board for the chance to build on the accomplishments of the University’s current leadership, staff, and students. He stated, “The University of Chichester is a strongly values-led institution, with a TEF Gold rating and a very clear commitment to its communities. I am immensely proud to have been appointed as the next Vice-Chancellor. The University provides an exceptional experience for our students and staff.  It is my intention to ensure that we continue to build on those strengths as well as make a significant impact through our internationally recognised research.”

Professor Dagkas is a dedicated researcher who is passionate about advancing diversity, equality, and inclusion in all facets of sport, exercise, and health. He is known to be an enthusiastic, energetic and empathetic leader who enjoys his colleagues’ successes as much as his own.

He is an AdvanceHE Race Equality Charter panellist and in March 2021 he was selected as an evaluator for the Knowledge Exchange (KE) Concordat. In April 2023 he was appointed by the OfS as Assessor/Lead Assessor for Quality and Standards in Higher Education.

The University looks forward to welcoming Professor Dagkas to Chichester in November.

Encouraging financial literacy at school with Carpenter Box

Roy Thompson, Head of Financial Services at Sussex-based Carpenter Box Financial Advisers, took to the classroom to help boost financial literacy among Year 8 and 9 school students in Eastbourne.  

Roy shared his financial wisdom during two sessions delivered to 14 and 15-year-old students at St. Catherine’s College, emphasising the value of a basic understanding of finance, the benefits of saving and the value of strategies for building a solid financial future.

“I have long thought that young people at school could benefit from a better understanding of personal finance” said Roy. “It’s not something routinely taught in the classroom, so I was very pleased to be given the opportunity by St. Catherine’s College headteacher Solomon Berhane to pass on some of my knowledge.”

The students were active participants in the sessions, asking questions that ranged from the intricacies of mortgages, the size of deposits needed to buy a house and how best to save for the future. They were also curious to find out more about complex topics like cryptocurrencies.

Roy added: “The big message I wanted to get across was that finance is not just about managing money, but about securing a better future. For young people, this probably seems like something they don’t need to worry about for a long way into the future, but I hope they left the sessions understanding that financial stability comes from consistent, informed actions over time, not from sudden windfalls.”

Carpenter Box Financial Advisers is committed to community engagement and will continue to advocate for financial literacy in schools in the hope that more institutions will integrate these essential skills into their curriculum.

www.carpenterboxfa.com

Sussex Senior Cup - Sussex Transport 

Sussex Transport have recently finished their first year as sponsors of the Sussex FA’s Senior Cup event – which became the “Sussex Transport Senior Cup” – The season long knockout culminated in a great final at the Amex - where Horsham beat Hastings town to lift the Cup in front of the competitions second largest ever crowd.  Damian Pulford (MD) handed out the trophy and medals and the Sussex Transport team had a fantastic evening as you can see from the photos attached.  The stadium was turned purple and white (where possible). 

Damian had the following to say about the event;

As sponsors, Sussex Transport is thrilled to support this competition, a jewel in the crown of local sports, embodying a rich tradition of team spirit and community pride. This competition, featuring the best of Sussex football, is a testament to the talent and passion that thrives within our wonderful county.

Our dedication at Sussex Transport extends beyond logistics; we are committed to enhancing community wellbeing through active participation in local sports and leisure clubs. Our ongoing engagement ranges from local clubs to county-wide events, with recent collaborations such as this one with the Sussex County FA and our partnership with Worthing FC, helping to deepen our ties with the sporting community. After all, sport is in our name.

Many local businesses support local sport and leisure groups, it really is a great way for local SME’s to give back - We’re definitely looking forward to the Sussex Transport Senior Cup 24/25 and it’d be great if the Chamber Members kept an eye on the Sussex Transport socials to find out more about next years event.

Upcoming Events from My University Hospitals Sussex

Their exciting events calendar has something for everyone. From comedy nights and music gigs to skydives and marathons join them to make unforgettable memories in 2024 and beyond. All while raising vital funds to make a positive difference to the lives of patients and staff at your local NHS hospital

29th June - Yard Sale

27th July - Supercar Track Day

15th August Covert Comedy

22nd August i360 Abseil

31st August Skydive

6th April 2025 Brighton Marathon

For these and more visit their events page

Kreston Reeves Graham Gardner named a rising star

Kreston Reeves Audit Quality Director Graham Gardner has been named one of Accountancy Age’s 35 Under 35, joining an exclusive group of the accountancy profession’s rising stars.

Graham joined Kreston Reeves in January 2024 as an audit quality director to drive innovation and maintain the high audit standards that the firm is recognised for. Kreston Reeves was named Progressive Audit Firm of the Year in the annual Accounting Excellence Awards in October 2023.

He has throughout his career played a critical role in exploring, developing and implementing new technology to improve the audit landscape. He joined Kreston Reeves from KPMG where he played a pivotal role in the firm’s implementation of AI-empowered audit software and led the design and development of the firm’s internal generative AI virtual assistant.

His commitment to inclusivity led to the creation of tools to support KPMG staff with dyslexia, and he built an automated staff allocation tool, saving administrative staff several hundred hours annually.

He has continued to drive innovation in his role at Kreston Reeves. He has developed an automated sampling tool and wrote and implemented a fraud detection methodology for AI in journal entry testing.

The Accountancy Age judges in making the award said: “His blend of technical proficiency and audit expertise positions him as a leader in his field, consistently driving improvements and efficiencies in audit practices.”

Commenting on the award, Graham said: “This is a real honour to join this exclusive group of peers. Every single one is exceptional and hugely talented. Technology is shaping the audit landscape and that will accelerate dramatically over the next few years. It is exciting to understand how technology will help us better achieve audit excellence and deliver greater assurances to our clients.”

Michael Cook, Partner and Head of Audit and Financial Reporting at Kreston Reeves adds: “The whole firm joins me in passing on our congratulations to Graham. In his time so far at Kreston Reeves Graham has made an outstanding contribution, he is a real asset to the firm and our clients.”

Conquer the UK Three Peaks – Hike for Homelessness 

Turning Tides, the West Sussex homelessness charity, is thrilled to announce the “Conquer the UK Three Peaks – Hike for Homelessness” event. The charity invites you to embark on this extraordinary journey, where your next adventure could be the start of someone’s journey out of homelessness. 

Could you join a group of dedicated adventurers who believe that everyone deserves a home? By taking on the Three Peaks Challenge from 3rd October, you will climb the highest mountains in the UK - Ben Nevis, Scafell Pike, and Snowdon - while raising vital funds to support people experiencing homelessness. Your fundraising will offer an opportunity to start their own journey and change their lives forever. 

Dedicated supporters from local business, Shore Group have ten staff members taking on the Three Peaks Challenge with Turning Tides this October. 

“Our team of 10 are taking on the Three Peaks Challenge for Turning Tides—a lifeline for the homeless in our local Sussex area. Anyone’s life can unravel into homelessness, whether affected by the cost-of-living crisis, illness or unforeseen circumstances. Turning Tides provides real pathways out of homelessness for those in need of support.” 

To participate, you’ll need a good level of fitness and a commitment to fundraising.  Don’t worry—Turning Tides will guide you every step of the way, from securing your place to reaching your fundraising target. 

Self-confessed rubbish portrait artist Hercule Van Wolfwinkle is a long-time supporter of Turning Tides. He’s has signed up for the challenge, as he continues add to the £200k+ already raised for Turning Tides over the last three years.  

“I’ll be aiming to climb the three highest mountains in the UK (Ben Nevis, Scafell Pike, and Snowdon) in a little over 24 hrs; starting on the morning of 4th October and ending around lunchtime on the 5th.” 

“I’ll also be attempting to draw a portrait at the top of each mountain, and you could be in with a chance of your pet being one of three drawn.” 

Did you know that for every person you see rough sleeping, there are at least another 20 hidden homeless? And those numbers are on the rise. If you want to do something about this and love hiking you can register here: Conquer the UK Three Peaks - Hike for homelessness Tickets, Fort William | Eventbrite 

Please visit Turning Tides website for more information: https://www.turning-tides.org.uk/event/conquer-the-uk-three-peaks-hike-for-homelessness/ 

Flexible AI Upskilling Fund pilot: open for applications

Through this pilot programme, eligible business can apply for funding for up to 50% of the cost of AI skills training. This is training which supports employees to develop their technical skills and/or understanding of AI to be able to develop, deploy, or use AI in their role. Training can be at any level, from foundational skills helping trainees understand how AI can be used in their business to advanced technical skills allowing them to design and develop AI tools themselves.  

From boosting efficiency in the workplace, ramping up productivity, and even unlocking new ways to treat disease and tackle climate change, boosting AI skills is key to allowing us to continue driving forward the next wave if innovation and opportunity. We encourage all eligible businesses to apply, no matter where they currently are on their AI adoption journey.

Objectives of the programme

Artificial Intelligence holds huge opportunities to drive productivity and prosperity across the UK economy. It has the potential to increase UK GDP by up to 10.3% by 2030 – the equivalent of an additional £232 billion - and businesses who adopt AI are more likely to be successful than those that do not.

But evidence shows that a lack of AI skills in businesses is hindering AI adoption, in part due to low investment in AI upskilling in UK businesses, particularly in smaller companies.

This pilot programme will test whether training SMEs in AI maximises the value of adoption AI. Specifically, whether government support in the form of match-funding is an effective way of increasing employer-led upskilling in AI, and whether increased skills translate into AI adoption and firm-level productivity benefits.

Specifically, the pilot has the following objectives:

1. To stimulate employer investment in AI training
2. To address AI skills gaps in the UK workforce limiting AI adoption
3. To measure the impact of AI upskilling on business productivity and outcomes

Eligibility

The funding competition is open to applicants who:

• are registered and operate in the UK
• employ between 1-249 employees in the UK
• are defined as an SME per the BEIS SME Action Plan
• have been operating for at least 1 year
• are able to match-fund 50% of the cost of the training, and
• operate in the Professional and Business Services (PBS) sector (see the guidance attached for definition)

Please see the guidance attached for further detail on eligibility and application criteria.

Open for applications

Applications have now opened. £6.4 million of grant funding is available, and eligible businesses have until 11.59pm on 18 August 2024 to apply for funding. Please apply for the programme through Apply for A Grant.