George Square Financial Management Monthly Market update – June 2023

Corporate Comeback

The last few weeks have seen equity markets gyrate in response to earnings and economic data.

The recent earnings season marked a full year since the start of the war in Ukraine. Most US large cap companies exceeded analyst expectations in Q1 2023. While the large cap US index reported a year-over-year decline in earnings of 2.2%, positive earnings surprises in sectors like Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Health Care contributed to a decrease in the pace of earnings decline versus that in the fourth quarter of 2022 (-4.7%).

While earnings have surprised to the upside, economic data has started to weaken. China, the world’s largest exporter, has reported disappointing manufacturing data for two consecutive months. US housing and manufacturing indicators remain in recession territory and the wrangling around the debt ceiling and the flight of deposits out of the banking system create additional risks that investors need to be aware of.

When I get back to Blighty

The palpable sense of gloom around the prospects for the UK economy are hard to ignore. UK gilt yields have risen after the latest inflation reading by the office of national statistics. The consumer price index rose by 8.7% in April, down from 10.1% in March. This however is the highest inflation rate among the worlds advanced economies alongside Italy. By comparison, inflation in the US is just under 5% and is 7.2% in Germany.

Underlying inflation (excluding energy and food) rose sharply in April to 6.8% from 6.2% in March. Higher core inflation is seen as a sign that price growth is more likely to remain persistently high. It appears that the Bank of England has a lot more work to do. Expectation of further rate increases have quickly been priced into mortgage rates, forcing further pressure on beleaguered households.

The UK economy faces greater challenges in regaining its footing in a post-pandemic, post-Brexit world. As a result, both fiscal and monetary policy may need to be tighter for a little while longer. While this will suppress growth over the coming months, we do believe it will quell the risk of an inflation mindset taking hold. Inflation will eventually subside allowing a reversal of the policy measures in 2024.

Portfolio positioning

While there is no escaping the headlines, from an investment portfolio perspective, we have taken steps to mitigate against the risk of UK economic stagnation.

Our underweight exposure to equities remains appropriate, though we are looking for opportunities to add as and when markets begin to better reflect the more challenging economic environment. As things stand, other asset classes look relatively more attractive. We have been gradually increasing our exposure to government bond markets, which should start to offer more defensive characteristics as inflation falls from very high levels. We have recently been switching some of our fixed income exposure from US Treasuries into UK gilts, based on the view that markets may be overly-optimistic on US rate cuts. High levels of inflation in the UK have made meeting inflation plus return targets more challenging in the shorter term. Despite this, we remain confident in the ability to meet inflation-plus targets over the longer term.

Conclusion

The start of the year saw a recovery in optimism regarding global growth. While the UK appears to have misplaced its invitation to the recovery party, we believe it is a blip rather than a longer-term shift in our economic fortunes. The sell-off in bonds and parts of the equity market in 2022 has created a good starting point for better than average portfolio returns. We are data dependent and analyse, adjust, and then repeat. We see material risks to economically sensitive assets and have taken additional steps to improve portfolio outcomes.

Change is never painful. Only resistance to change is painful- Buddha.

Local Art Gallery reach finals in Muddy Stilettos Awards!

Two faced twins are delighted to announce they are finalists in the "Best Art Gallery in Sussex" category. 

"We're finalist!!!!! We are reaching out again to all of our lovely followers to ask if you can help us win by voting for us!"

Don't forget if you've voted already you still need to vote again.

Just follow this link https://sussex.muddystilettos.co.uk/vote/ and support this amazing gallery

Worthing Mental Health Expo 2023

This year the launch of 2023 Worthing Mental Health Awareness event coincides with World Mental Health Day.

Following the success of the last 10 years at Offington Park Methodist Church, Co-Founders Bob Smytherman & Melanie Peters will be holding Worthing's First ever Mental Health Expo on Wednesday 11^th October in the Guildbourne Centre where you can come along and talk to the experts face to face in delightful town centre surroundings.

 This event will be held at the fabulous Rooms on the 1st Floor of The Guildbourne Centre, the morning will be full of useful information and our Keynote speakers will be Breakeven & Gamblers Anonymous.

Also on the 11^th, West Sussex Mind, Andy's Angels & Innavision will be running free different training courses in Rooms, all of which will be providing information on Mental Health in the Workplace, Stress, Mental Health First Aid & other helpful topics 

Bob Smytherman Co-founder said: "Following the success of Worthing Mental Health Awareness Week since 2013 while I was Mayor of Worthing,  I am very proud to have teamed up with Mel who has supported the event since then for Worthing's first ever Mental Health Expo held in the heart of the town to coincide with World Mental Health Day (10th Oct) & 11th which will include around 25 local service providers & free training in the Guildbourne Centre who have kindly donated the Centre for this important event"  

"Mel has been a great personal support to me for my own well-being & we are very much looking forward to welcoming residents & businesses to be involved in this two day event."

Co-founder of the new Mental Health Expo Mel added: 

"Having supported Worthing Mental Health Awareness Week with the marketing & refreshments since 2013 , I am delighted to be invited to run the new Expo at one of my clients namely The Guildbourne Centre in the Town Centre, I would also like to thank Stacey from Limepixel for her support with the new website"

"There continues to be a real need for good quality Mental Health advice & support as well as training for businesses & their staff and I think this Expo will provide a great opportunity to reach even more people than we have done in the last 10 years. "

We are looking for individuals,  businesses & charities with an interest in Mental Health to get in touch, stands on the Wednesday are FREE & must be manned & will be a first come, first serve basis. 

If you would like to get involved, please email info@worthingmentalhealth.co.uk

Does your business have a need for digital and advanced digital skills?

Digital Futures West Sussex, a programme launched to connect local businesses with talented jobseekers, is running an interactive roadshow at Ropetackle Arts Centre in Shoreham on Wednesday 7^th June from 4pm – 7pm.

Businesses across all sectors are invited to join the roadshow to showcase their company and meet with potential talent. The theme of the roadshow is digital sustainability, with a panel discussion on how this paving the way for business innovation and opportunity in West Sussex.

To register your interest for the Shoreham roadshow and let us know how you'd like to be involved, please click here to complete a short form.

Find out more about the programme at www.digitalfuturesws.co.uk  

Adur & Worthing Council offer FREE Wellbeing Service

Did you know your local council offer a wellbeing service that can help you improve the health of your workplace?

With dedicated wellbeing advisors they will work with you to develop the right approach for your workplace. This can include

• Free on site NHS health checks and wellbeing assessments with tailored support
• Lunchtime wellbeing workshops on topics such as healthy eating and quitting smoking
• Personalised reports and signposting to  other services that can help you improve the wellbeing of your workforce.

Kevin Pearce - Owner of Cedar Garage says "Think of a team member as a car. It's important to maintain their wellbeing, not wait until a break down occurs"

Four tips for creating a happy & healthy workplace

1. Create opportunities and incentives for staff to be physically active eg walk and talk meetings
2. Help staff to access wellbeing services
3. Promote campaigns like Dry January and Stoptober
4. Provide a supportive environment for employees, encourage conversations about health and and wellbeing and reduce the stigma around mental health.

Get in touch

info.wellbeing@adur-worthing.gov.uk  01903 221450

You can download the full brochure here 

Carpenter Box marks 100-year anniversary by fundraising for local charities

Local financial services firm, Carpenter Box, has been joined by special guests including Sussex MPs and the Mayor of Worthing to kick-off its 100-year anniversary celebrations at its head office in Worthing.

The firm was founded in 1923 and has since developed an impressive range of services for businesses and individuals based locally and internationally, growing to a headcount of over 200 and opening four further offices in Brighton, Gatwick, Chichester and London.

Despite Carpenter Box’s long-standing roots, the firm is led by a progressive team of partners with an average age of just 46 and has gained an unmatched reputation for its innovative and forward-thinking approach.

As a member of PrimeGlobal, an international network of independently owned financial advisory firms, Carpenter Box’s team of specialists also have extensive experience helping overseas businesses set up in the UK and trade around the globe.

To mark a successful 100 years in business, the firm aims to give back to the community that it has served in for a century by raising £50,000 through a series of exciting fundraising events, for local charities chosen by the company’s charitable foundation.

Those receiving donations include Red Balloon Worthing, an alternative school for children subject to bullying, homeless charities Crawley Open House and Turning Tides, and mental health charity West Sussex Mind.

Representatives from the charities were among those who attended the firm’s recent 100-year anniversary celebration, along with business people, including those who have sponsored the fundraising efforts with generous donations.

East Worthing and Shoreham MP Tim Loughton, said: “I’m really pleased to be able to wish Carpenter Box a happy 100^th birthday and to congratulate you on the fantastic firm that you’ve become today. Thank you for all you’ve done for the local community. It’s a great firm, a jewel in the crown of Worthing. Congratulations on your first 100 years and here’s to the second 100 years for Carpenter Box!”

Alan Edwards, Managing Partner at Carpenter Box, commented: “We’re extremely proud and grateful to be celebrating 100 years in business, and the journey we’ve taken to be where we are today.

“In 1923 Robert Carpenter agreed to go into partnership with Harold Box and together they opened a Worthing office at Liverpool Gardens. Today, we have 19 Partners and over 200 staff supporting businesses and families across Sussex.

“We would like to thank all our staff, clients, and the local community who have been a part of Carpenter Box’s journey so far. Here’s to the next 100 years!”

For more information about Carpenter Box, please visit: www.carpenterbox.com  

Local Business Owner, Krisi Smith, Co-Founder of Bird & Blend Tea Co. is on the newly released Amazon Prime ‘Apprentice’ style TV show Ready Set StartUP!

Krisi Smith and her award-winning Sussex based tea company Bird & Blend are featured in a brand new exciting reality TV show ‘Ready Set StartUp’ on Amazon Prime. Tipped to be the next Apprentice, this compelling new television series features 10 young British and Irish entrepreneurs that go head-to-head competing for the lucrative £100k investment for their start up business.

The 6 part TV series involves a thrilling blend of challenges, putting to the test the contestant’s business skills and acumen. Sussex based founder Krisi was selected to be a guest judge on the show, standing alongside Alison Edgar MBE, founder of Intellium Advisory Ying Wang, and Monzo founder Tom Blomfield to name a few.

Krisi and her inspirational company feature in episode 4, in its entirety, with the apt title ‘Tea-riffic Tensions’. Krisi and her team, including Danii who is the Brighton Laines store manager, introduce their magical tea brand to the contestants and set them an exciting business challenge - to deliver a launch event for Bird & Blend’s new product. Tension, drama & entertainment then ensue! Krisi sits on the judging panel, giving the contestants valuable feedback and guidance while ultimately voting on who goes home. 

Krisi says, ‘It was an honour (& super exciting) to be asked to be a judge on the show. The other judges are leading business people & entrepreneurs so to be sitting alongside them was a once in a lifetime opportunity. I’m super proud to be recognised as a successful Founder & entrepreneur that has been asked to help inspire the next generation of entrepreneurs. At the London premiere of the show, the consensus was that our episode is a fantastic one to watch with spirits and tensions high, creating a drama heavy, powerful and entertaining show!’.

‘Ready Set StartUp’ is produced and owned by Pictures in Motion, a production company dedicated to creating business and entrepreneurial formats that will entertain, be meaningful, inspire and educate. The show is presented by Irish broadcaster Simon Atkins, it premiered in Cannes and London during April and May, respectively, of this year and it’s available to stream on Amazon Prime.

Chamber Members, Shake It Up Creative, are hosting a free marketing workshop during the Worthing Festival. Arts, culture and creative businesses can learn how to understand and use marketing more effectively. Messaging, SEO basics and social media marketing will all be covered in the session at Worthing Museum on 15th June. 

You can book on here https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/worthing-festival-the-art-of-marketing-tickets-592303946047

Worthing’s inaugural multi arts festival runs from the 11th to the 18th June in various venues across Worthing.  With the schedule comprising of music, theatre, dance, art, heritage, comedy, spoken word, workshops, film, outdoor and family events, there's something for everyone.

Some events are free and others low cost, but they can all be found and booked via

https://timeforworthing.uk/whatsonworthingfestival23/

Does your business have a need for digital and advanced digital skills?

Digital Futures West Sussex, a programme launched to connect local businesses with talented jobseekers, is running an interactive roadshow at Ropetackle Arts Centre in Shoreham on Wednesday 7^th June from 4pm – 7pm.

Businesses across all sectors are invited to join the roadshow to showcase their company and meet with potential talent. The theme of the roadshow is digital sustainability, with a panel discussion on how this paving the way for business innovation and opportunity in West Sussex.

To register your interest for the Shoreham roadshow and let us know how you'd like to be involved, please click here to complete a short form.

Find out more about the programme at www.digitalfuturesws.co.uk  

AD Fuels, Safety First - Safety Always

AD Fuels are pleased to announce the appointment of Andrew Fuller as Training Business Partner.

Andy joins the team with 15 years’ experience in HGV driver training and over 40 years within the logistics sector.

We are pleased to welcome Andy to our growing team and very much look forward to increase and harmonising standards.

Ben Burt will now take up a new role of Logistics & Technical Support Manager. This role has been developed due to the growth of the business and expresses the company’s desire to support our customers and on field drivers with any technical and detailed care. Having 11 years’ experience in methane haulage, gas control and safe process Ben’s appointment is a crucial position to allow our business to develop alongside our customers whilst still offering that crucial support for our driving team.

Both Ben & Andy will be working closely together to reach the goal of 100% safety.